Thinking traps
Predictable biases distort judgement for everyone, experts included. Knowing the common traps and using simple counter-moves makes decisions more reliable.
Key ideas
- Confirmation bias: we seek evidence that agrees with us.
- Anchoring: the first number heard sways estimates.
- Sunk cost: past investment wrongly drives future choices.
Step by step
- 1
Before deciding, ask what evidence would prove you wrong.
- 2
Make your own estimate before hearing others.
- 3
Ask: if I were starting today, would I choose this?
- 4
Invite one person to argue the opposite case.
Example
A manager about to extend a failing project asks whether she would start it today. The answer is no, and she redirects the budget.
Your drill
Review a recent decision and identify which trap might have influenced it, then apply the matching counter-move.
Common mistakes
- Believing awareness alone removes bias.
- Spotting bias in others but not in yourself.
Check yourself
What question counters the sunk cost trap?
Show the answer
If I were starting fresh today, would I still choose this?
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